| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.6% | 56% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 81% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.1% | 74% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 60% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.7% | 22.7% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 45.4% | 26.4% | 28.3% |
| logistic | 47.1% | 26.7% | 26.2% |
| Barrow | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1353 | 1393 |
| Surface Elo | 1353 | 1393 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.27 | 1.45 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Aldershot | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Forest Green | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Sep | A | Forest Green | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Gateshead | 4 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gateshead | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Tamworth | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |