| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.4% | 71% | -10.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.9% | 32.0% |
| logistic | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Ugo Humbert | Corentin Moutet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1824 | 1706 |
| Surface Elo | 1824 | 1706 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 11 | 49 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Dane Sweeny | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Aug | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | H | Marton Fucsovics | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Jul | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | Ugo Humbert |
| 05 May 2025 | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 0 | Ugo Humbert |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |