OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ England FA Cup · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Fleetwood Town 1.40 1 - 1 0.40 Rochdale
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.9%59%-12.0%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.9%80%-5.2%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 62.4%77%-14.8%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.3%58%-3.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.3%27.6%34.1%
xgboost46.4%24.3%29.2%
logistic52.1%27.0%20.8%
Inputs the models saw
Fleetwood TownRochdale
Elo (pre-match)14211504
Surface Elo14211504
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.400.40
Form trend-0.100.20
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W2 W · 3 D
Fleetwood Town: last 5
31 OctHBristol Rovers3 - 1W
31 OctHBristol Rvs3 - 1W
27 OctHArsenal1 - 1D
24 OctAExeter1 - 2L
24 OctAExeter City1 - 2L
Rochdale: last 5
03 NovHDoncaster1 - 4L
31 OctAPort Vale2 - 4L
31 OctAPort Vale2 - 4L
24 OctHAccrington0 - 5L
24 OctHAccrington0 - 5L
Head to head
26 Sep 2026Fleetwood Town1 - 2Rochdale
26 Sep 2026Fleetwood Town1 - 2Rochdale
10 Apr 2021Fleetwood Town1 - 0Rochdale
03 Oct 2020Rochdale2 - 1Fleetwood Town
26 Dec 2019Rochdale2 - 3Fleetwood Town
21 Sep 2019Fleetwood Town2 - 1Rochdale
19 Jan 2019Rochdale1 - 1Fleetwood Town
18 Aug 2018Fleetwood Town2 - 2Rochdale
20 Mar 2018Rochdale0 - 2Fleetwood Town
14 Oct 2017Fleetwood Town2 - 2Rochdale
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.8020.8%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1024.4%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6759.9%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7158.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC