| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.6% | 82% | -15.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 69.0% | 18.4% |
| xgboost | 83.7% | 15.5% |
| logistic | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Chicago Blackhawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1573 | 1336 |
| Surface Elo | 1573 | 1336 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.64 | 0.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.71 | 2.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.21 | 3.94 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Detroit Red Wings | 4 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 4 - 5 | L |
| 29 Oct | H | Winnipeg Jets | 6 - 4 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 6 | L |
| 05 Nov | A | Florida Panthers | 3 - 5 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Colorado Avalanche | 2 - 5 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Boston Bruins | 4 - 5 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Detroit Red Wings | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Los Angeles Kings | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 - 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 3 | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 - 4 | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Chicago Blackhawks | 3 - 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 05 Nov 23:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 4.78 | 20.9% | 05 Nov 23:20 |