| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.1% | 48% | +8.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| logistic | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1733 | 1796 |
| Surface Elo | 1733 | 1796 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Marin Cilic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Marin Cilic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 07 Oct 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 09 Sep 2024 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 06 Feb 2017 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.79 | 55.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |