| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.4% | 68% | -9.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.8% | 89% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.3% | 85% | -5.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 69% | -8.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 72.3% | 15.6% | 12.1% |
| xgboost | 64.8% | 21.1% | 14.0% |
| logistic | 55.9% | 25.5% | 18.5% |
| Southampton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1685 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1685 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.30 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.10 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 6 - 5 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Blackburn | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.31 | 15.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.18 | 19.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |