| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 72.7% | 72% | +0.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 10.8% | 89.1% |
| logistic | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Luciano Darderi | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1875 | 1953 |
| Surface Elo | 1875 | 1953 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 24 | 46 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Dane Sweeny | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Harry Wendelken | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Christopher O'Connell | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Aug | H | Joao Fonseca | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Jul | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Casper Ruud | 0 - 2 | Luciano Darderi |
| 15 May 2026 | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | Luciano Darderi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.43 | 69.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |