| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.0% | 61% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 40.6% | 59.3% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Oleksandr Ovcharenko | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1470 | 1477 |
| Surface Elo | 1470 | 1477 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 28 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Robert Strombachs | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Benjamin Hassan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Giovanni Oradini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Tunas, Guillermo | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |