| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.0% | 65% | -13.5% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.2% | 87% | -8.6% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.1% | 82% | -12.5% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 69% | -16.2% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.0% | 28.5% | 32.5% |
| xgboost | 57.4% | 26.5% | 16.0% |
| logistic | 53.7% | 29.2% | 17.0% |
| NAC Breda | FC Emmen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1436 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1436 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 181 | 1266 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 06 Nov | A | FC Dordrecht | 0 - 0 | D |
| 02 Nov | A | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | JOS Watergraafsmeer | 3 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Heracles | 1 - 1 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Helmond Sport | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | H | MVV Maastricht | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | FC Den Bosch | 0 - 5 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Groningen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Vitesse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Almere City | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Apr 2019 | NAC Breda | 1 - 1 | FC Emmen |
| 10 Nov 2018 | FC Emmen | 2 - 0 | NAC Breda |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.20 | 19.2% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |