| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.6% | 79% | -31.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 88% | -11.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.4% | 92% | -31.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 71% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.2% | 24.6% | 42.1% |
| xgboost | 44.5% | 29.0% | 26.6% |
| logistic | 49.4% | 23.7% | 26.9% |
| Benfica | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1855 | 1913 |
| Surface Elo | 1855 | 1913 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | FC Felgueiras 1932 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Guimaraes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Guimaraes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Porto | 1 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Porto | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Motherwell | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Motherwell | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Clachnacuddin FC | 3 - 3 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | East Kilbride | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Rangers | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 11.08 | 9.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.23 | 13.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.30 | 30.3% | 15 Oct 06:15 |