| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 71% | -14.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.1% | 38.8% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Ayla Aksu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1534 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1534 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.18 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Serban, Isabella Maria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Bianca Andreescu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Mair, Laura | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Ayla Aksu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Anna Blinkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Lisa Zaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Dalayna Hewitt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Lucrezia Stefanini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Himeno Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Fiona Crawley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Ayla Aksu | 2 - 1 | Lucrezia Stefanini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 28 Oct 06:15 |