| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.6% | 55% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 78% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.7% | 74% | -12.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 52% | +3.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.7% | 29.8% | 38.5% |
| xgboost | 33.0% | 24.6% | 42.4% |
| logistic | 24.4% | 29.4% | 46.2% |
| Carrarese | Modena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1371 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1371 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Benevento | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Benevento | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Catanzaro | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 4 - 4 | D |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Modena | 2 - 0 | Carrarese |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Carrarese | 0 - 0 | Modena |
| 04 May 2025 | Carrarese | 2 - 1 | Modena |
| 09 Nov 2024 | Modena | 2 - 0 | Carrarese |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.30 | 23.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |