| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.4% | 68% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.0% | 71.9% |
| logistic | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Hernan Casanova | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1478 | 1591 |
| Surface Elo | 1478 | 1591 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 1 | Hernan Casanova |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 1 | Hernan Casanova |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 0 | Hernan Casanova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 19 Oct 06:15 |