| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.4% | 36% | +30.4% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 90.2% | 66% | +24.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 87.2% | 49% | +38.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 62% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.1% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 77.8% | 15.7% | 6.6% |
| xgboost | 57.2% | 25.4% | 17.4% |
| logistic | 77.4% | 18.3% | 4.3% |
| Atlético Madrid | Alcorcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1787 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1787 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 2.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 880 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Real Jaen CF | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Albacete | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | RC Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | La Coruna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Stuttgart | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Ibiza | 3 - 3 | D |
| 16 Oct | H | Huesca | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 5 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Gimnastic | 3 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |