| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.7% | 65% | -6.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.0% | 88% | -5.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.1% | 83% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 60% | -5.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.7% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| xgboost | 60.3% | 23.3% | 16.4% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 23.0% | 13.8% |
| Plymouth | Burton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1471 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1471 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Blackpool | 4 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Blackpool | 4 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Barnsley | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Doncaster | 3 - 2 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Mansfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Mansfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Oxford | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Cambridge | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | Burton |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Burton | 0 - 4 | Plymouth |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | Burton |
| 19 Nov 2022 | Burton | 2 - 2 | Plymouth |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Burton | 0 - 0 | Plymouth |
| 09 Oct 2021 | Plymouth | 2 - 1 | Burton |
| 17 Apr 2021 | Burton | 1 - 1 | Plymouth |
| 10 Oct 2020 | Plymouth | 2 - 0 | Burton |
| 29 Dec 2018 | Burton | 1 - 1 | Plymouth |
| 20 Oct 2018 | Plymouth | 2 - 3 | Burton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.00 | 16.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.80 | 17.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |