| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.9% | 74% | -15.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 62.3% | 37.6% |
| logistic | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Pedro Sakamoto | Santiago De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1451 | 1395 |
| Surface Elo | 1451 | 1395 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Goncalves, Joao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Boris Arias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Jun | A | Matias Soto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Jun | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | A | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 28 Sep 06:15 |