| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.4% | 57% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.5% | 43.4% |
| logistic | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Hernan Casanova | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1593 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1593 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 36 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Hernan Casanova | 0 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.74 | 57.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |