| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.1% | 38% | +3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 71.2% | 72% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.6% | 56% | -2.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 67% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.0% | 35.3% | 29.7% |
| xgboost | 34.2% | 34.0% | 31.8% |
| logistic | 34.7% | 29.9% | 35.3% |
| Burgos | Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1549 | 1519 |
| Surface Elo | 1549 | 1519 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | SD Almazan | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Granada | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Granada | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Almeria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Almeria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Ceuta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Ceuta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 2.70 | 37.0% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.36 | 73.5% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 2.95 | 33.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.55 | 39.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.50 | 66.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |