| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 53% | -0.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Pavel Kotov | Marat Sharipov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1668 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1668 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 13 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Rio Noguchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Akira Santillan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Pavel Kotov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Petr Bar Biryukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Marat Sharipov | 2 - 0 | Pavel Kotov |
| 07 Sep 2026 | Marat Sharipov | 2 - 0 | Pavel Kotov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 20 Sep 06:16 |