| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.5% | 67% | -14.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.3% | 86% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.3% | 82% | -12.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 72% | -17.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.0% | 23.1% | 47.9% |
| xgboost | 21.9% | 26.5% | 51.6% |
| logistic | 18.5% | 25.8% | 55.6% |
| Holstein Kiel | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1415 | 1643 |
| Surface Elo | 1415 | 1643 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Dresden | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Dresden | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 0 | D |
| 16 Oct | H | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Braunschweig | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 | 1 - 4 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Lyon | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Borussia M´gladbach | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 3 | Hoffenheim |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | Holstein Kiel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.50 | 66.7% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.14 | 19.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.93 | 16.9% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.37 | 73.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.25 | 30.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |