| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.4% | 70% | -11.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| logistic | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Luciano Darderi | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1874 | 1919 |
| Surface Elo | 1874 | 1919 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Luciano Darderi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 2 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 2 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.42 | 70.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |