| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 42% | +15.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 57.4% | 42.5% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1490 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1490 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Sep | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Blaise Bicknell | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Aug | H | Mathys Erhard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Moez Echargui | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.54 | 64.9% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 27 Sep 06:15 |