OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-19
🇮🇹 Serie A · Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Monza 0.80 4 - 0 2.00 Cagliari
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 42.9%32%+10.8%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.8%73%+1.6%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 53.5%46%+7.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.4%48%+7.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson31.1%26.8%42.2%
xgboost31.3%28.4%40.3%
logistic42.3%28.2%29.5%
Inputs the models saw
MonzaCagliari
Elo (pre-match)15561675
Surface Elo15561675
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.802.00
Form trend-0.20-0.20
Season points per game0.672.17
Season goals for / game1.501.00
Season goals against / game2.500.50
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W2 W · 1 D
Monza: last 5
12 OctACagliari1 - 1D
11 OctALazio1 - 3L
11 OctALazio1 - 3L
18 SepHSassuolo2 - 1W
13 SepALecce2 - 3L
Cagliari: last 5
12 OctHMonza1 - 1D
11 OctHJuventus1 - 1D
11 OctHJuventus1 - 1D
19 SepAUdinese1 - 0W
12 SepAAtalanta2 - 1W
Head to head
12 Oct 2026Cagliari1 - 1Monza
30 Mar 2025Cagliari3 - 0Monza
05 Jan 2025Monza1 - 2Cagliari
16 Mar 2024Monza1 - 0Cagliari
26 Nov 2023Cagliari1 - 1Monza
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8834.7%19 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2draw3.1032.3%19 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2home2.5539.2%19 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0349.3%19 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8354.6%19 Oct 17:30
SportyBet1X2away3.1032.3%19 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2830.5%19 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.5439.4%19 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0548.8%19 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8055.6%19 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:58 UTC