OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Cardiff 1.40 1 - 0 2.60 Birmingham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 43.8%37%+7.1%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.8%78%-2.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 54.3%49%+4.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.6%64%-5.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson34.8%26.6%38.6%
xgboost35.2%25.8%39.1%
logistic46.2%26.9%26.9%
Inputs the models saw
CardiffBirmingham
Elo (pre-match)15531617
Surface Elo15531617
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.60
Form trend-0.20-0.20
Season points per game1.001.82
Season goals for / game1.641.82
Season goals against / game1.551.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Cardiff: last 5
17 OctAMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
17 OctAMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
Birmingham: last 5
17 OctHQPR3 - 0W
17 OctHQPR3 - 0W
13 OctHPreston4 - 0W
13 OctHPreston North End4 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
Head to head
10 Apr 2024Birmingham0 - 1Cardiff
13 Dec 2023Cardiff0 - 1Birmingham
14 Feb 2023Birmingham0 - 2Cardiff
13 Aug 2022Cardiff1 - 0Birmingham
30 Apr 2022Cardiff1 - 1Birmingham
11 Dec 2021Birmingham2 - 2Cardiff
01 May 2021Birmingham0 - 4Cardiff
16 Dec 2020Cardiff3 - 2Birmingham
18 Jan 2020Birmingham1 - 1Cardiff
02 Nov 2019Cardiff4 - 2Birmingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.4041.7%24 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.7027.0%24 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.5738.9%24 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%24 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.5040.0%24 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.4441.0%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7826.5%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.8035.7%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5664.1%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.5040.0%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC