| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.1% | 67% | -13.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.0% | 46.9% |
| logistic | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1660 | 1698 |
| Surface Elo | 1660 | 1698 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 2 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 15 Oct 06:15 |