| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.3% | 20% | +27.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.4% | 86% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.0% | 24% | +34.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 70% | -11.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 21.1% | 21.4% | 57.4% |
| xgboost | 43.2% | 23.8% | 33.0% |
| logistic | 37.7% | 27.5% | 34.9% |
| Reading | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1724 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1724 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Norwich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bournemouth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bournemouth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Brentford | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Hull | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.90 | 20.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |