| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.6% | 58% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.8% | 84% | -2.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.8% | 77% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 52% | +7.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.3% | 26.3% | 20.4% |
| xgboost | 57.6% | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| logistic | 61.7% | 24.9% | 13.4% |
| Grimsby | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1475 | 1293 |
| Surface Elo | 1475 | 1293 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Burton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Cambridge | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Northampton | 1 - 2 | Grimsby |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Grimsby | 1 - 1 | Northampton |
| 29 Feb 2020 | Grimsby | 0 - 3 | Northampton |
| 23 Nov 2019 | Northampton | 2 - 0 | Grimsby |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Grimsby | 0 - 0 | Northampton |
| 24 Nov 2018 | Northampton | 2 - 2 | Grimsby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.60 | 21.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |