| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 56% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.3% | 38.7% |
| xgboost | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| logistic | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Islanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1360 | 1467 |
| Surface Elo | 1360 | 1467 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 169 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 3 | L |
| 15 Apr | A | Ottawa Senators | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Dallas Stars | 5 - 6 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | Florida Panthers | 2 - 6 | L |
| 09 Apr | A | New York Islanders | 3 - 5 | L |
| 14 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 4 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | Ottawa Senators | 0 - 3 | L |
| 09 Apr | H | Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 - 3 | W |
| 04 Apr | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 3 - 4 | L |
| 09 Apr 2026 | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 3 | New York Islanders |
| 04 Jan 2026 | New York Islanders | 4 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 03 Jan 2025 | New York Islanders | 1 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 1 | New York Islanders |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 6 | New York Islanders |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.79 | 55.9% | 30 Sep 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.14 | 46.7% | 30 Sep 19:20 |