| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.8% | 58% | -5.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.0% | 52.9% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Mitchell Krueger | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1589 | 1585 |
| Surface Elo | 1589 | 1585 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Tyler Zink | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Bryce Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Kaylan Bigun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Kaylan Bigun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Keegan Smith | 0 - 2 | Mitchell Krueger |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | Keegan Smith |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | Mitchell Krueger |
| 12 Sep 2022 | Keegan Smith | 2 - 0 | Mitchell Krueger |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.72 | 58.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |