| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.5% | 65% | -7.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| logistic | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |