| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.8% | 55% | +8.1% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.3% | 81% | +2.9% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.7% | 73% | +7.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 63% | -1.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.2% | 18.4% | 14.4% |
| xgboost | 68.5% | 13.5% | 18.1% |
| logistic | 62.2% | 22.0% | 15.8% |
| Worthing | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1541 | 1393 |
| Surface Elo | 1541 | 1393 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.43 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.57 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Southend | 3 - 3 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Southend | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Aldershot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Aldershot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Harrogate | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Harrogate | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Truro | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |