| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.5% | 48% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.4% | 79% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.5% | 64% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 60% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.1% | 25.2% | 29.7% |
| xgboost | 41.8% | 27.6% | 30.6% |
| logistic | 44.3% | 28.4% | 27.3% |
| Hornchurch | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1480 | 1404 |
| Surface Elo | 1480 | 1404 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Altrincham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Altrincham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Worthing | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Tamworth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Tamworth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Yeovil | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |