| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.5% | 59% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 26.9% | 73.0% |
| logistic | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Aziz Dougaz | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1608 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1608 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 64 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Damir Dzumhur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Hayato Matsuoka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Sergey Fomin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | Jie Cui | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | Manas Dhamne | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Aziz Dougaz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Aziz Dougaz | 1 - 2 | Damir Dzumhur |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.70 | 58.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |