| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.8% | 47% | -4.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.5% | 76% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.5% | 65% | -9.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 55% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.5% | 27.2% | 34.3% |
| xgboost | 38.9% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| logistic | 37.6% | 29.5% | 32.9% |
| Aberdeen | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1652 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1652 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Dundee United | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Dundee United | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | St Mirren | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | St Mirren | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Elgin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Aberdeen | 1 - 1 | Falkirk |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Falkirk | 1 - 0 | Aberdeen |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Aberdeen | 0 - 1 | Falkirk |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.49 | 28.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.58 | 27.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.11 | 47.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |