| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.8% | 74% | -8.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 20.0% | 79.9% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Rafael Tosetto | Ignacio Monzon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1361 | 1388 |
| Surface Elo | 1361 | 1388 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 15 | 99 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Jefferson Wendler Filho | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Mar | A | Emilio Nava | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | A | Hernan Casanova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Samuel Heredia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Jun | H | Juan Sebastian Gomez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Jun | H | Matias Soto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Ignacio Monzon | 2 - 0 | Rafael Tosetto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.36 | 73.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |