| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.9% | 91% | -28.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 85.3% | 99% | -13.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.8% | 99% | -17.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 75% | -21.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 5.9% | 14.6% | 79.5% |
| xgboost | 27.1% | 19.6% | 53.4% |
| logistic | 11.9% | 22.5% | 65.5% |
| Fleetwood Town | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1407 | 1947 |
| Surface Elo | 1407 | 1947 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Exeter | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Exeter City | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Cheltenham | 2 - 4 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Cheltenham | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Rotherham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Everton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Everton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.10 | 90.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 12.95 | 7.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 27.98 | 3.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.32 | 75.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |