| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.4% | 59% | -6.4% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.1% | 84% | -4.0% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.1% | 78% | -6.6% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 50% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.1% | 27.9% | 26.0% |
| xgboost | 52.6% | 28.0% | 19.4% |
| logistic | 56.3% | 26.0% | 17.8% |
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1599 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1599 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Millwall | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Derby | 1 - 1 | Millwall |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Derby | 0 - 1 | Millwall |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Millwall | 1 - 1 | Derby |
| 23 Feb 2022 | Derby | 1 - 2 | Millwall |
| 06 Nov 2021 | Millwall | 1 - 1 | Derby |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Derby | 0 - 1 | Millwall |
| 05 Dec 2020 | Millwall | 0 - 1 | Derby |
| 20 Jun 2020 | Millwall | 2 - 3 | Derby |
| 14 Dec 2019 | Derby | 0 - 1 | Millwall |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.08 | 19.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.01 | 24.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.86 | 53.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.99 | 50.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |