OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Middlesbrough 2.20 2 - 2 1.40 Cardiff
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.2%65%-10.8%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.8%85%-4.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.0%81%-7.7%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63.5%71%-7.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 61.5%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson54.2%23.4%22.4%
xgboost52.9%29.3%17.8%
logistic57.1%23.7%19.2%
Inputs the models saw
MiddlesbroughCardiff
Elo (pre-match)16511546
Surface Elo16511546
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.40
Form trend-0.20-0.40
Season points per game2.332.00
Season goals for / game2.003.00
Season goals against / game1.331.33
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Middlesbrough: last 5
13 OctAStoke3 - 2W
13 OctAStoke3 - 2W
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
19 SepABirmingham2 - 2D
Cardiff: last 5
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
19 SepHCharlton3 - 1W
Head to head
04 Jan 2025Middlesbrough1 - 1Cardiff
31 Aug 2024Cardiff0 - 2Middlesbrough
27 Apr 2024Cardiff1 - 4Middlesbrough
03 Oct 2023Middlesbrough2 - 0Cardiff
11 Feb 2023Cardiff1 - 3Middlesbrough
13 Sep 2022Middlesbrough2 - 3Cardiff
27 Apr 2022Middlesbrough2 - 0Cardiff
23 Oct 2021Cardiff0 - 2Middlesbrough
27 Feb 2021Middlesbrough1 - 1Cardiff
24 Oct 2020Cardiff1 - 1Middlesbrough
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.3818.6%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.9920.0%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5564.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4170.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.0033.3%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC