| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.0% | 57% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 84% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.4% | 73% | -11.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 74% | -16.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.8% | 23.1% | 36.1% |
| xgboost | 41.6% | 24.9% | 33.6% |
| logistic | 39.7% | 28.4% | 31.9% |
| Fylde | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1403 | 1420 |
| Surface Elo | 1403 | 1420 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 0.91 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 1.36 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| Rest days | 7 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.78 | 56.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |