| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.1% | 62% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| logistic | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1806 | 1821 |
| Surface Elo | 1806 | 1821 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 2 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |