| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.7% | 50% | +14.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.0% | 71.9% |
| logistic | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Martin Landaluce | Jan Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1707 | 1812 |
| Surface Elo | 1707 | 1812 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 31 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Rodrigo Alujas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Dusan Lajovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Aug | A | Alex Michelsen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Jun 2026 | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 1 | Martin Landaluce |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.99 | 50.2% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 07 Oct 06:15 |