| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.6% | 25% | +37.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 84.6% | 49% | +35.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.0% | 32% | +47.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 32% | +19.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 5.4% | 13.6% | 81.0% |
| xgboost | 30.9% | 20.3% | 48.8% |
| logistic | 10.9% | 21.9% | 67.2% |
| Port Vale | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1924 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1924 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | York | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | York | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | AEK | 5 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich | 3 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |