| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.7% | 57% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.9% | 34.0% |
| logistic | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Eric Vanshelboim | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1449 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1449 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 24 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Aug | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Feb | H | Ioannis Xilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Feb | A | Aditya Vishal Balsekar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Jan | H | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Seghetti, S | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Roberto Carballes Baena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Feb | H | Petr Brunclik | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 24 Sep 06:15 |