| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.0% | 75% | -20.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| logistic | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Mateus Alves | Pedro Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1470 | 1432 |
| Surface Elo | 1470 | 1432 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May | A | Hernan Casanova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Tristan McCormick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Alan Magadan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 May | H | Stefan Dostanic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | Pedro Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 27 Sep 06:15 |