| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.2% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.8% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 84.3% | no line | void | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 47.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.1% | 27.8% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 52.7% | 25.8% | 21.5% |
| logistic | 61.3% | 23.3% | 15.4% |
| Guimaraes | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1484 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1484 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Academico Viseu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Casa Pia | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Sp Braga | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Nacional | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | Sp Lisbon | 2 - 3 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Maritimo | 3 - 1 | W |
| 09 Sep | H | Benfica | 0 - 4 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Porto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Casa Pia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Arouca | 0 - 4 | L |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Guimaraes | 1 - 0 | Moreirense |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Moreirense | 2 - 0 | Guimaraes |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Moreirense | 2 - 2 | Guimaraes |
| 03 Nov 2024 | Guimaraes | 1 - 0 | Moreirense |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Guimaraes | 1 - 0 | Moreirense |
| 05 Nov 2023 | Moreirense | 1 - 0 | Guimaraes |
| 03 Apr 2022 | Moreirense | 0 - 1 | Guimaraes |
| 06 Nov 2021 | Guimaraes | 2 - 1 | Moreirense |
| 30 Apr 2021 | Guimaraes | 2 - 0 | Moreirense |
| 09 Jan 2021 | Moreirense | 2 - 2 | Guimaraes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||