| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.4% | 68% | -10.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| logistic | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Nuno Borges | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1867 | 1968 |
| Surface Elo | 1867 | 1968 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 26 Oct | A | Mika Brunold | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Dominic Stricker | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | Nuno Borges |
| 26 May 2025 | Casper Ruud | 1 - 3 | Nuno Borges |
| 19 Feb 2024 | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | Nuno Borges |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |