| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.5% | 53% | +8.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.0% | 82% | +5.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.7% | 72% | +9.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 53% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 84.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| xgboost | 53.8% | 31.2% | 15.0% |
| logistic | 81.2% | 14.9% | 3.9% |
| Real Madrid | Alcorcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1841 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1841 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 847 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | UE Sant Andreu | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Vallecano | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Gimnastic | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Jun | H | Burgos | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 May | A | Levante | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 May | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 May | A | Ferrol | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 27 Sep 06:15 |