| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.1% | 59% | -14.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 79% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.0% | 77% | -18.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 56% | +7.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.3% | 26.5% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 26.9% | 29.7% |
| logistic | 45.6% | 28.4% | 26.1% |
| QPR | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1533 | 1609 |
| Surface Elo | 1533 | 1609 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.71 | 2.57 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Nov | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Southampton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Southampton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Swansea | 5 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Watford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Watford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Birmingham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Birmingham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Burnley | 4 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.07 | 19.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.12 | 24.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |