| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.9% | 77% | -5.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 92.1% | 97% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 90.3% | 94% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 69% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 75.5% | 16.4% | 8.1% |
| xgboost | 79.3% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| logistic | 78.2% | 15.9% | 5.8% |
| St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1814 | 1456 |
| Surface Elo | 1814 | 1456 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 0.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.75 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 14 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Antwerp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Lommel SK | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Charleroi | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | St Truiden | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Sporting Hasselt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | RSC Anderlecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Anderlecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | KVK Tienen | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Charleroi | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Cercle Brugge | 1 - 1 | St. Gilloise |
| 22 Nov 2025 | St. Gilloise | 2 - 0 | Cercle Brugge |
| 08 Dec 2024 | Cercle Brugge | 0 - 0 | St. Gilloise |
| 27 Oct 2024 | St. Gilloise | 1 - 3 | Cercle Brugge |
| 19 May 2024 | Cercle Brugge | 1 - 2 | St. Gilloise |
| 07 Apr 2024 | St. Gilloise | 2 - 3 | Cercle Brugge |
| 03 Dec 2023 | St. Gilloise | 2 - 1 | Cercle Brugge |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Cercle Brugge | 0 - 2 | St. Gilloise |
| 18 Jan 2023 | Cercle Brugge | 1 - 1 | St. Gilloise |
| 09 Oct 2022 | St. Gilloise | 2 - 1 | Cercle Brugge |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 25 Oct 18:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 25 Oct 18:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 25 Oct 18:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 25 Oct 18:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 25 Oct 18:15 |