| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.9% | 71% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| logistic | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Henrique Rocha | Inaki Montes De La Torre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1706 | 1686 |
| Surface Elo | 1706 | 1686 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Luca Potenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Henrique Rocha | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 1 | Inaki Montes De La Torre |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |